小麦赤霉病分段预测模型的研究

A STUDY ON STAGE PREDICTION MODELS FOR WHEAT SCAB DISEASE

本研究分析了小麦赤霉病与气候、病菌活动状况等环境因子的极其复杂关系,应用Fisher准则下的判别分析法、Fuzzy综合评判法、Exs综合决策法,建立由粗到精到粗的前、中、后三段预报模型,既较好地弥补了目前中长期趋势预报的不足,又可防止按短期预报部署防治而出现被动应战的局面。且各段预报历史符合率达86.96—100%。经1986—1988年3年应用,预报正确。

The complex relations between wheat scab disease and climate,ac-tivity of the pathogen and other factors were analyzed.Using the dis-tinguish method of Fisher rule,integrated assessment of FUZZY andexpert system decision,three stage prediction models have been built,namely,decision of control strategies(active attacking or dealingwith each case),grade predicting of epidemic degrees(light,light tomiddle,middle to light,middle,middle to heavy and heavy)and de-cision of control practice including times of control(15 days beforecontrol,7 days before control and 3 days before control).Thismethod could not only counteract disadvantages in the middle and long predictions,but also protect the short prediction from the passive sit-uations.Each stage prediction accorded with the historic situations upto 86.96—100%,and their effectiveness reached 100%.