空间故障树与空间故障网络理论综述

Revision of the space fault tree and the space fault network system

为了研究多因素变化对系统可靠性的影响,在2012年提出空间故障树理论。随着研究的深入,在2015年逐渐将智能科学和大数据技术引入空间故障树,作为分析故障大数据和因素间因果逻辑关系的处理方法。进一步地,由于实际故障发生过程中事件和影响因素多是相互联系的网状结构,在空间故障树基础上提出空间故障网络理论。其主要用于描述自然灾害和人工系统故障发生过程,是研究系统故障演化过程的理论。上述理论发展可归纳为3个阶段:空间故障树基础、空间故障树改进、空间故障网络基础。通过综述形式总结并论述了以往空间故障树及空间故障网络的提出、发展过程和作用,以使读者对空间故障树和空间故障网络有一个较为全面的认识,并以此为基础在安全科学,特别是系统可靠性领域做出更大贡献。

To study the influence of multiple factors on the system reliability,the authors put forward the space fault tree theory in 2012.The said fault tree theory includes the continuous space fault tree(CSFT),the discrete space fault tree(DSFT)and the inward analysis of the structural systems(IASS).The above said fault tree theories can serve as the theoretical basis and basic framework of the space fault trees.As a matter of fact,with the development of the space fault tree theory,the intelligent science and big data technology have gradually been introduced into the space fault tree method since 2015 as a processing method for analyzing the causal logic relationship between the big fault data and the corresponding factors,including the cloud space fault tree,the logic analysis of the reliability and the influential factors,the system structure analysis,and the system reliability structure change in addition to the stability description method.Furthermore,we have also proposed the space fault network theory on the basis of the space fault tree,for the events and the influential factors in the actual fault process should be regarded as the most closely interconnected network structural form,whose main part has been perfected since 2018.What is more,the method based on the said theory has mainly used to describe the process of the natural disasters and the artificial system faults for tracing their evolutionary process.In addition,the above described theoretical development can be divided into 3 stages,i.e.the space fault tree foundation,the space fault tree improvement,and the foundation of the space fault network.By surveying the form of the theory,we have summarized and discussed the construction,the development process and the role of the space fault tree and space fault network in the past.Besides,to help the readers to grasp the comprehensive idea of the space fault tree and the space fault network,especially,those in the field of safety science and engineering to face the coming era of big data and intelligent science,the paper thinks it necessary to put forward some suitable system reliability research methods,through which,the readers can be offered a chance to look forward to the development status-in-situ of the safety science and safety management related fields,especially in the field of system reliability in making greater contributions.