建筑业百亿元产值死亡率影响因素的灰色关联分析

Revision analysis of the gray correlation between the influential factors and a ten billion yuan output value mortality in the building industry

引入百亿元产值死亡率作为参考指标,从建筑业和宏观经济两个方面获取了6个影响因素,包括技术装备率、房屋建筑面积、劳动生产率、建筑业总产值、职工平均工资和GDP指数。以2007—2016年统计年鉴的面板数据为基础,运用灰色关联分析方法,分析了这些影响因素与百亿元产值死亡率的相关程度,关联度从大到小为GDP指数、技术装备率、劳动生产率、职工平均工资、建筑业总产值、房屋建筑面积。此外,将全国各省(市、自治区)按累计死亡率进行聚类,分为4个区域,北京、上海、天津等归为区域一,甘肃、吉林和安徽等归为区域二,云南和宁夏归为区域三,青海、海南和贵州归为区域四,并以区域四的3个省为例进一步进行研究。分析发现,虽然GDP指数和技术装备率仍是影响死亡率的最重要因素,但各省的死亡率关联因素排序不同,其中劳动生产率是贵州省影响死亡率的关键因素,建筑业从业人员的平均工资是青海和海南省影响死亡率的关键因素。这表明不同省份应考虑不同的安全管理策略。

The present paper is inclined to study the relationship of the construction industry and the other branches of macro economy by taking the 10 billion Yuan output value mortality rate here quoted as a reference index to see the interrelated influential factors.The said 6 influential factors have been acquired from the aspects of the building industry and the macro economy from the data given in the previous researches,which may include the technical equipment rate,the housing construction area,the labor productivity,the total output of the building industry,the average wage of the employees and the GDP of the country.It is just based on the panel data of the statistical yearbook from 2007 to 2016 that we have analyzed the correlation degrees among the above said influential factors and the 10 billion yuan output value mortality rate by using the gray correlation method.Ranking by the correlation degrees from the highest to the lowest,the sequential order can be illustrated as follows:the GDP,the technical equipment and installation rate,the labor productivity,the average wage of the employee groups,the total output of the building industry,and the residential house construction area.Furthermore,it is also possible to classify the provinces and citiesacross the country into 4 different areas by the accumulative mortality rate.For example,Beijing,Shanghai,Tianjin,and other biggest municipalities can beput into the first-class mortality rate area,whereas the provinces like Gansu,Jilin,and Anhui can be classified into the second-level mortality rate area.What is more,the province of Yunnan and the autonomous regions like Ningxia can be classified into the 3-rd class mortality rate area.Besides,the provinces like Qinghai,Hainan and Guizhou can be put into the 4-th class mortality rate area.It would also be possible to take the 3 provinces from the 4-th class area can be further studied as the other typical examples.Thus,it can be deduced that,although GDP and the technical equipment rate can also serve as the most important factors affecting the mortality rate,each province can be put into their own inside different classes.Moreover,the labour productivity can also be put into the key distinguishing factors in Guizhouin average wages of employees in the building industry,just like in provinces of Qinghai and Hainan.This may indicate that different provinces may have different safety management modes.Hence,all the results we have illustrated may tend to provide more effective guides to the safety management in the building industry,though the same management mode in different regions has to be made to get rid of.