基于StockBased模型的废旧手机资源开发利用潜力评价

Evaluation for exploration and utilization potential of the used mobile phones based on the StockBased model

为了解决我国小型IT通讯设备(以手机为例)统计评价体系尚不健全的问题,综合采用Stock Based模型对我国废旧手机资源化回收利用进行全面的评价,将Weibull分布模型引入至Stock Based模型中对其中产品寿命分布进行修正,同时将Logistics分布模型引入至Stock Based模型中对时间维度进行扩展,预测了我国废旧手机的产生量和淘汰量;在此基础上,延伸探讨手机产品再利用、零部件回收利用、资源再生3个维度的资源经济及市场开发利用水平。结果表明:2017年我国用于手机产品再利用、零部件回收利用、资源再生环节的市场经济价值约是162. 368亿元、2. 164亿元、1. 054亿元,这表明现阶段废旧手机回收商业模式并不是建立在材料价值基础上的,在量化和比较废旧手机开发利用城市矿产的可持续供应上应尽量延长或维持产品的使用寿命,尽早构建互联网+新型回收模式,尽快建设废旧手机在线交易体系,尽力完善生产者责任延伸制度,逐渐找寻正向与逆向供应链相互契合的新商业模式。

This paper is inclined to make an evaluation and exploration of the utilization situation and potential substitution of the mobile phones in our country based on the stock-based model comprehensively for their recycling and utilization.The purpose of the paper can be said to solve the problem that the statistical evaluation system of China’s mini-IT communication means and facilities(taking the mobile phone market and uses as a case study sample)has not yet been satisfactory.To achieve the said purpose,we have first of all introduced the Weibull distribution mode into the Stock Based model in hoping to modify the product life distribution.And,next,we have managed to bring the Logistics distribution model into the Stock Based model to expand the time dimension for the reason that the Stock Based model can help to forecast and predict the situation of the ownership of the mobile phones,the current sales volume,the phase-out and the scrap volume during the period of the 30 years from 2000 to 2030 at home in China.And,furthermore,on the afforementioned basis,it would be possible to make it clear the resource economy and the market development level from the following 3 points of view,that is,the mobile phone production,the recycling situation of the mobile phone parts and the resource regeneration of the used phones.The above said statistical investigation results show that the market economic system and the outlook of China’s mobile phone reuse,the recycling and resource regeneration of the used phones stand about 16 236.8 million RMB Yuan,216.4 million RMB Yuan,105.4 million RMB Yuan for the year of 2017,which signifies that the current business model of recycling the used mobile phones has not been well constructed based on the recycled phone materials,rather,the key elements for such recycled application are based on looking for a new trading mode.For example,in quantifying and comparing the sustainable supply of the wasted mobile phones to develop and utilize the urban minerals,the service life of the products should be extended or maintained as early as possible,so that the new'Internet+'recycling model should be developed as soon as possible,whereas the original mobile phones online trading system has also to be reconstructed as quickly as possible.Thus,it can be expected to extend,strengthen and heighten the quality and quantity of the products.At the same time,the mobile phone companies and firms should take up more responsibilities to improve their service and gradually renew their business model in correspondence with the reverse supply chain to their consumers.