干旱地区经济-生态环境系统规划方法与应用

Economic-Environmental System Planning for Arid Regions in China

从干旱地区经济 -生态环境系统的动态性、综合性、多目标性和不确定性等特征出发 ,提出用不确定性多目标规划( IMOP)模型来解决干旱地区以水资源为核心的生态环境规划优化问题 ,建立了干旱地区经济与生态环境系统不确定性多目标规划模型 ( IMOPMEES) ,应用模糊算法退化形式进行多目标规划的求解。并以新疆和墨洛地区为具体研究对象 ,采用 IMOPMEES进行可持续发展规划 ,应用交互式调整和情景分析的方法得到模型在两种情景下的优化方案。进而对两种情景进行综合分析比较 ,为决策者提供科学合理的决策依据。研究表明 IMOP模型可以充分反映干旱地区经济 -生态环境系统的不确定性和动态性 ,并有效地协调目标之间的冲突 ,为干旱地区经济 -生态环境规划工作提供了一种较为有力的工具。

The economic-environmental system in arid regions, of which water resource is an essential component, is characterized by as dynamic, complexity, multi-objectivity and uncertainty. Economic- environmental system planning is a very useful approach to harmonize economic development and environmental protection for fragile environmental systems such as those in arid regions. In this paper, an integrated approach, combining Inexact Multi-objective Programming (IMOP), Interactive Adjustment and Scenario Analysis, is applied to solve the economic-environmental system planning for arid regions, using the Hemoluo Prefecture, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region as a case study.\;The recent few years have witnessed the increasing use of the IMOP model worldwide in solving many optimization problems such as solid waste management planning, aquatic environment planning, economic development zone planning and land use planning. IMOP can reconcile multiple and often conflicting objectives, minimize system uncertainty and optimize system performance. In this study, the application of the IMOP to economic-environmental system planning for arid regions was explored. On the basis of IMOP, the Inexact Multi-objective Programming Model for Economic Environmental System (IMOPMEES) was built and solved with the fuzzy algorithm and its simplified form. The IMOPMEES model has 5 objective functions covering economic benefit maximization, plantation structure optimization, forest areas maximization, agriculture water consumption minimization and fertilization consumption minimization. The IMOPMEES model also has 14 constraints on such factors as water resource supply, total land area, foodstuff output and regional economy and so on. Among these constraints, water resource supply was the most significant constraint to reflect its strategic importance for arid regions. The IMOPMEES has proven to have the ability to simulate the characteristic of the economic-environmental system in arid regions, and a valuable tool for achieving the harmonization of conflicts between environmental and economic objectives. \;Moreover, the Interactive Adjustment Method was used in the study to modify the model structure and the coefficients to reflect the features and the possible diverse bias of the local experts and decision-makers. The Scenario Analysis Method was applied to interpret the planning results in numerical form which results in the selection of a most practical and feasible scenario.\;In applying the IMOPMEES model to the sustainable development planning for the Hemoluo Prefeture as a case study, two types of alternatives were produced and analyzed with the help of Scenario Analysis and Interactive Adjustment Method. Through comparison and analysis, the optimal alternative was selected which can provide a scientific and reliable foundation for policy making. The model was used to simulate a serials of scenarios for 2005 and 2010, covering industrial production, plantations, gardening, stockbreeding as well as water resource consumption. Recommendations were made for the Hemoluo Prefecture to select the alternatives which emphasize the harmonization of environment protection, economic development and the sustainable utilization of water resource.\;The case study confirms the practicability and operability of the IMOPMESS model and its applicability to economic-environmental system planning for arid regions.