水稻生长动态模拟研究进展

Advances in Dynamic Simulation Research of Rice Growth

在查阅了国内外水稻生长动态模拟研究领域大量文献的基础上 ,主要就气候变化对水稻生长影响的模拟、水稻生产潜力的估算、生育期预测、氮肥的优化管理、水稻群体质量指标的模拟与优化以及水稻干物质生产模拟等 6个方面的研究动态进行了综述 ;提出了水稻生长动态模拟模型研究和应用中存在的建模方法、参数确定和生产应用等 3个方面的问题 ;最后对该领域今后的攻关内容进行了探讨 ,认为进一步研制和完善包括营养元素、病虫草害在内的 ,以作物生理生态为基础的水稻生产系统综合性模拟模型 ,充分利用以信息技术为主体的现代科学技术 ,组织全国范围的协作试验以建立水稻品种参数数据库和研制估算水稻品种参数的数学方法 ,将水稻生长动态模拟模型和专家系统结合 ,组建水稻生产优化管理决策支持系统 ,是提高水稻生长动态模拟模型实用性的关键。

Based on an extensive review literature on dynamic simulation of rice ( Oryza sativa L.) growth, the following six aspects of this plant growth are presented in this paper. ① Simulation of the effects of climate change on rice growth. The general result is that when the temperature increases, the production of rice improves in cold regions, while it decreases in warm regions, and that increase in CO_2 leads to higher productivity. ② Estimating the production potential of rice. Generally, it is theoretically possible to predict the production potential of rice by the simulation model. There are lots of case studies in which simulation models have been applied in the production, research and decision making for rice cultivation. ③ Prediction of growth duration. Usually rice models in other countries have been set up on the basis of tropic and Indica subspecies, but these models only consider rice growth sensitivity to temperature, while the crop's sensitivity to light has not been adequately studied by use of models. As Chinese territory is very wide, Chinese modelers usually consider rice growth sensitivity to both temperature and light, this has made the models have higher spatial and temporal adaptability. ④ Quantitative optimization of nitrogen application in rice production. As nitrogen cycle is quite complex in soil-crop-atmospheric system and no effective method in the study of nitrogen cycle is available at present, practical application cases of nitrogen models are very scarce. ⑤ Simulation and optimization of indexes of rice population quality. There have been a lot of research in the connotation and components of indexes of rice population quality, as well as its optimum value in different regions, manipulation technologies and correlations between rice population quality, spikelet rate and yield. But so far no unified and authoritative definitions and indexes system have been established. ⑥ Simulation of dry matter production. At present, the main problem in simulation of dry matter production lies with the unsatisfactory spatial and temporal adaptability of the model, this is so because the amount of rice parameters do not reflect the different characteristics of different environments. In addition, the structure of the model lacks integrality, flexibility and versatility.Finally this paper addresses the problems and issues encountered in the study of simulation models for rice growth dynamics, involving the establishment methods, parameters and applications of the model. The authors proposed further researches should be conducted in the following aspects: Firstly, future models should be set up on the basis of physiological and ecological theories, and more elements in the production of rice like nutrient management, plant diseases and pest control should be included in the model. Secondly, a database of rice variety parameters should be set up through information technology and national rice research team in field experiments. On the other hand it is necessary to establish the method of calculating the rice variety parameters. Thirdly, rice growth dynamic models and expert system should be combined into management optimization and decision support system for rice production, which is key to improved application of rice growth dynamic simulation model.