空中突击效果预测模型研究

Study on a Forecast Model of Air Strike Effects

从实践需求出发 ,在合理划分预测单位、设置预测前提、简化预测参数、确定预测方法的基础上 ,建立了空中突击效果的预测模型 ,以便对特定目标在某一时刻遭到突击后 ,预测其在任一后续时间点上所产生的突击效果。为确保模型的可行性及有效性 ,还进行了必要的算例验证。结果表明 ,该模型的提出 ,为战役计划人员有效使用战役突击力量、合理制定战役计划 ,尤其是空中进攻战役计划 。

According to the practical requirements, this paper establishes a forecast model of air strike effects based on the rational division of forecast units, establishment of forecast premises, simplification of forecast parameters and determination of forecast method. The main purpose of the model is to forecast the strike effects at a subsequent point of time after a particular target is struck. The paper also verifies the feasibility and effectiveness of the model with an example. The result shows that the model can provide. the planning personnel with necessary means of mathematical analysis in effectively deploying strike forces and working out campaign plans especially an air offensive campaign plan.