摘要
作为电力系统安全分析中的重要组成部分,偶然事故的选择由于在分析过程中加入了对事故发生率的考虑而变得更具有合理性。然而,在对事故发生率的计算过程中,由于目前只积累了少量的数据,使得在不同情况下对系统中事故发生率发生异常变化不能合理地区分并加以估算。为此,该文提出采用跳跃度函数的方法,对系统中所出现的引起事故发生率发生变化的异常数据进行分析和计算,在进行理论证明的基础上给出了跳跃度函数的计算公式,并以线路故障率为例,说明文中的方法对电力系统偶然事故选择所产生的影响。
As an essential part in the power system security analysis, the whole process of contingency selection becomes more sensible by taking the probability aspect into consideration. However, due to the lack of the field data, the irregular change of the probability for the outages occurrence in certain situations could not be told for further assessment. In this paper, a method based on the Bouncing Function is proposed for discerning and calculating the outliers, which resulted in the irregular change. Calculation method is given out with the theoretical proof. By using the line outage as an example, the effect of the proposed method upon power system contingency selection is presented.
出处
《中国电机工程学报》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2002年第8期26-30,共5页
Proceedings of the CSEE
关键词
电力系统
偶然事故选择
异常数据
鉴别
事故发生率
跳跃度函数
contingency
probability of outages occurrence
sample
outlier
Influence Function
Bouncing Function
