地地战术导弹飞行可靠性指标评定方法

Estimation Method for Flight Reliability of Surface to Surface Tactical Missile

在小子样情况下 ,利用系统和分系统试验数据对导弹的飞行可靠性指标进行评定 ,从数学上说是系统可靠性综合问题 .运用MML SR方法对新型号地地战术导弹的飞行可靠性指标进行评定 ,避免了MML方法在遇到无失败单元时不适用的缺陷 ,在利用地面试验信息方面有其明显优势 ;运用Bayes方法对改进型导弹的飞行可靠性指标进行评定 ,将不同试验阶段的多源试验信息作为验前信息 ,扩大了信息量 .最后 ,对两种方法在工程应用上遇到的问题进行了讨论 ,并给出了解决方法 .

In the situation of small samples,it belongs to systems reliability integration by math that we estimate the flight reliability of missile using systems and subsystems testing data.The MML SR method is given for estimating flight reliability of new type surface to surface tactical missile,the method avoid the limitation unfiting for no fault unit,and has the advantage in using surface testing information.The Bayesian method is also given for estimating flight reliability of modified type surface to surface tactical missile,the method regard the information at different stage as prior information,enlarging the amount of information.At last,the problems in using the two method are also discussed,and the way are given to solve them.