安全事故的非线性自组织特征初探

Preliminary Discussion on Non -linear and Self -organizing Features of Safety Accidents

通过对国内各省、市、自治区各个行业在2000年和2001年1～7月安全事故的统计分析后发现,国内各省、市、自治区和各个行业安全事故的发生较好地遵循了幂律规则,在无标度区域内,安全事故规模大于x人的安全事故数目Y满足关系式lgY=a-bx。该式适用于一定的时间和空间范围内的安全系统,所以,安全系统具有自组织特征。同时,对预测安全事故的发生提供了可能。

The statistical analysis on safety ac-cidents occurred in each province,city,autonomous region,industry and every month in China showed that the occurrence of safety acci-dents is suitable to Power-law.In the non-scale region,the relation of the frequency of accidents x and the number of accidents Y meets the formula lgY=a-bx,which is important to safety system.So the safety system has the non-linear and self-organizing characteristics,it is possible and valuable for the prediction of safety accidents.