基于多因素元件停运模型的电网失负荷计算

Calculation Method of Load Loss in Power Grid Based on Component Outage Model Considering Multi-factors

电网失负荷计算能反映电网事故的严重程度,是电网运行安全风险评估的重要内容。基于多因素对电网元件停运概率的影响,分析了电网元件停运概率的可修复失效模型、老化失效模型及天气相依的偶然失效模型三者之间的关系,采用并集的概念建立了电网元件停运概率模型,在此基础上提出了一种电网失负荷计算方法。以IEEE-RTS79系统为例,采用蒙特卡洛法对系统状态进行抽样,通过该失负荷算法计算出电网失负荷概率及失负荷量,验证了该种方法的有效性和可行性。

Loss of load calculation in power grid which could reflect the severity of power grid accident is an important part of power grid operation risk assessment. Based on multiple factors that influenced the probability of component outage, this paper analyzes the relationship among the repairable failure model, aging failure model and the weather dependent incidentally failure model. Then the concept of union set is used to establish a model which could calculate the outage probability. Finally, it puts forward a method of loss of load calculation. Taking the IEEE RTS-79 system for an example, the sampling of system state is implemented by using Monte-Carlo method, and the probability and loss of grid load are obtained. At the same time, it verifies the feasibility of the proposed method.