变化环境下黄浦江年最高潮位频率分析

Frequency Analysis of Annual Maximum Tide Level in Huangpu River in Times of Intense Change

受气候变化及人类活动的影响，近三十多年来黄浦江频繁出现高潮位，以往潮位设计值的可靠性值得商榷。基于吴淞站、黄浦公园站的实测年最高潮住资料，分别选取1912～2010年、1913～2010年的潮位序列，在对潮位资料进行一致性检验、一致性修正的基础上，采用P-Ⅲ和EV—1分布进行频率分析。结果表明，仅吴淞站的年最高潮位序列通过一致性检验，而黄浦公园站的潮位序列则需进行一致性修正；两种频率分布曲线对黄浦江年最高潮位设计值的估计相差不大，且千年一遏的设计值均比上海市区目前采用的1985年经水利部批准的千年一遇的设防标准要高，更符合变化环境下实际潮位的上升趋势。研究结果可为上海市防洪规划提供重要依据。

With increasingly climate change and intensive human activities, Huangpu River appears high tide level fre- quently in recent decades, and the reliability of previous designed tide levels is kept increasingly focused and questioned. Based on the observed annual maximum tide level data at Wusong Station in 1912-2010 and Huangpu Park Station in 1913-2010, the consistency test and consistency correction of annual maximum tide level were carried out. Pearson Type Three Distribution （P-]]I） and Extreme Value Type One Distribution （EV-I ） were selected to investigate the frequency distribution at two stations. The results revealed that only the tide level at Wusong Station passed the consistency test while Huangpu Park Station needs consistency correction; two kinds of frequency distributions have similar estimation a- bout the design tide levels at two stations and the one-in-thousand-year design tide level is higher than the flood control standard adopted in 1985 by the Ministry of Water Resources in Shanghai City~ the design tide level is consistent with the rising trend of the observed data. The research can provide valuable references for the flood control planning in Shanghai City.