基于贝叶斯面板模型的扩展C-D生产函数估计及实证

The Estimation and Empirical of Extended C-D Production Function Based on the Bayesian Panel Model

摘要：利用2008--2011年的省际面板数据并充分收集和整理先验信息，运用贝叶斯面板模型分析和研究了扩展的C-D生产函数，有效地处理了短期时序造成的小样本问题以及误差项之间的相关性问题，实现参数的适时修正和更新。研究发现：目前中国物质资本份额的后验均值为55％，明显低于中国学者估计的60％；人力资本所占份额仅为5％～6％，其对经济增长的拉动作用没有得到充分的发挥，中国应增大人力资本投入；固定资产投资比例人均产出弹性的后验均值为1．37；地理位置等个体差异依旧是造成中国发展不平衡问题逐年扩大的重要原因。

Using the inter-provincial panel data from 2008 to 2011 and by collecting the prior information sufficiently and through Bayesian panel model, this paper deal effectively with the small sample problem caused by short-term time series and the correlation issue of random error term, realizing the parameters timely revised and updated. The results found that： at the present, our posterior mean of physical capital share is 55%, significantly less than 60% of the scholars estimated; with only 5%-6% share, human capital＇s role fueling economic growth has not been fully play, indicating that we should increase human capital investment; the posterior mean of elasticity of fixed asset investment ratio of per capita output is 1.37; Individual differences such as geographic location is still an important factor causing the growing problem of unbalanced development.