人民币升值与国民收入变动对中美贸易的影响

An Empirical Analysis of RMB Exchange Rate and GDP's Impact on Sino-US Trade

运用1999-2013年中美两国贸易的季度数据,通过建立VAR模型以及对模型的协整检验,拟合了人民币兑美元实际有效汇率、中美两国收入水平及美国对中国贸易逆差的相关关系,发现美国贸易逆差并非由人民币低估引起。通过建立美国进口需求模型和美国对中国出口模型,结果显示:美国国民收入每增加1亿元,美国从中国的进口额就会增加约174万美元,而中国国民收入每增加1亿元,中国对美国的进口额增加约192万美元,这说明美国长期的贸易逆差主要是市场供需调节的结果,人民币汇率与之相关,但并不是主要原因。

According to quarterly data of US and China from 1999Q1 to 2013Q4 ,we built a VAR model and did co-integration test to fit the correlation among RMB real effective rate against the USD dollar ,US trade deficit with China ,and income levels of US and China .The result proved that it was not the undervaluation of the RMB that led to American trade deficit .The article then built an American-Import-Demand model and an American-Export-Supply model ,and the result showed that per 1000 mil . Dollars added to GDP of US would lead to a 1 .74 mil .Dollars increase in US import turnover from China ;similarly ,per 1000 mil .Dollars added to GDP of China would lead to a 1 .94mil .This proves that it is the effect of market supply-demand that cause US trade deficit with China ,and the RMB exchange rate is not the main reason .