基于Nerlove模型的中国鸡蛋供给反应实证分析

An Analysis on the Supply Response of Eggs in China:an Empirical Investigation based on the Nerlove Model

基于Nerlove模型,利用动态面板GMM方法对鸡蛋供给反应进行了研究。结果表明:中国鸡蛋供给的短期和长期价格均缺乏弹性,养殖户对鸡蛋价格变化反应迟钝;养殖户生产决策存在约1.86年的时滞期,并且疫情对鸡蛋产量具有显著的负作用;规模化养殖相对于非规模化养殖,短期和长期价格供给弹性都要大的多,并且加大生产投入能带来更多的产量增长,但是规模化养殖和非规模化养殖在生产决策时滞上相差不大,并且规模化养殖疫情冲击的负向作用要大于非规模化养殖。

This paper empirically studies the supply response of eggs in china with the Nerlove model by using dynamic panel GMM way .It is concluded that the short-term and long-term price elasticity of egg supply in china are lack of flexibility ,so farmers are slow in response to egg price signal .Meanwhile , there is a lag period of about 1 .86 years of farmers＆#39;production decisions ,and the avian influenza ,the representative of epidemic ,has a remarkable negative effect on egg production .Besides ,compared with non-scale farming ,the large-scale farming has bigger short-term and long-term price elasticity ,and also can bring more output growth by increasing more production inputs .However ,there are no significant differences between large-scale farming and non-scale farming on production decision ,and the epidemic has a bigger negative effect on large-scale farming than non-scale farming .