环境约束下的化石能源跨期开采路径比较研究

Comparative Study on Optimum Extraction of Fossil Energy under Environment

考虑化石能源开发和使用的环境外部性与代际外部性,在动态最优开采模型基础上构建含有环境污染因子的跨期配置模型,比较考虑环境制约因素前后的开采路径,证明环境约束对化石能源消耗有复杂影响,环境作为政策工具可以调节化石能源开采强度,在一定程度上缓解了资源的稀缺性和延长了资源耗竭时间,为具有经济价值的可再生能源的出现赢得时间。应用中国相关历史数据,发现实际上环境约束没有抑制化石能源消耗,偏离了理论分析预期目标。据此提出加快矿产资源税费改革、加大环境污染治理投资、优化投资结构、建立科学环境补偿制度、促进技术进步的政策建议。

Due to the scarcity and non -renewal of fossil energy ,the key to sustainable development and utilization of it is to solve the environmental externality and inter -generational externality coming from resources exploitation . A new intertemporal allocation model with environment pollution was established to compare the path of exploitation with environmental constraints or not based on the research of dynamic optimal exploitation model .The result shows that environmental constraints have impaction on the path of exploitation .As policy instruments ,environmental constraints can adjust exploitable intensity of energy resources ,alleviate the scarcity of resources ,prolonged depletion of resources and buy time for finding the economical renewable energy .With the comparison between the theoretical study and empirical test getting from historical data of environmental constraints and fossil energy consumption in China ,we found that environmental constraints didn＆#39;t impede the exhaustion of fossil energy ,which is digress from the expected goals .Accordingly ,some advices were given in the end such as accelerating reform of the mineral tax , strengthening environmental pollution control investment , improving the investment structure , establishing a scientific system of environment compensation and advancing the technical progress .