我国财政政策和货币政策规则选择与搭配研究

Research on the Selection and Collaboration of China's Fiscal Policy and Monetary Policy Rules

在动态随机一般均衡模型(DSGE模型)的框架下,构建适合中国国情的动态"新凯恩斯主义"DSGE模型以研究不同财政政策和货币政策规则的搭配效应。基于中国的宏观经济数据,通过"贝叶斯"估计比较不同货币政策规则情景下的财政政策效应及其整体的经济波动效应,研究发现:在同一货币政策规则下,不同财政政策规则的经济效应较为相似;在不同的货币政策规则之下,财政政策对私人消费、通货膨胀和债务水平的影响有明显差异;货币政策的经济波动效应大于财政政策的效果。

Under the framework of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium, this paper builds a New Keynesian DSGE model to study the cooperative effect of heterogeneous fiscal policy and monetary policy rules. Based on China＇s macroeconomic data, it focuses on Bayesian estimation and compares the effect of different fiscal rules under different monetary policy rules. It finds that the economic effect of different fiscal policy rules under the same monetary policy rule is similar; its effect on consumption, inflation and debt is obviously different under different monetary policy rules ; the economic fluctuation effect of monetary policy is greater than fiscal policy.