节能减排、技术创新与收入再分配的宏观波动效应

Macro Fluctuation Effect of Energy Conservation and Emission Reduction,Technology Innovation and Income Redistribution

在国家经济结构转型升级背景下,从动态新凯恩斯主义视角尝试构建一个多部门的DSGE模型,运用脉冲响应与参数敏感性分析测度节能减排、技术创新与收入再分配的宏观波动效应。研究结果表明:能效提高和排放成本下降可降低社会边际成本、抑制通胀水平,有助于实现节约能源、环境控制与经济增长的政策目标;资本弹性系数越大,能源效率正面效果越显著,环境污染负面效应越严重,降低政府消费对经济发展的积极作用越大;技术创新在促进经济增长、改善收入分配、刺激消费需求、抑制通胀等方面均有显著作用;刺激净出口可促进经济增长,但不利于改善居民收入与消费结构;产业转型升级、收入再分配机制完善,对改善国内经济结构及平抑经济波动等均能起到积极作用。

In the background of the transformation and upgrading of national economic structure, this pa- per tries to construct a multi-sectoral DSGE model based on dynamic new Keynesian perspective and analyzes the effect of macro fluctuation of energy conservation, emissions reduction, technology innovation and income redistribution by using impulse response function and parameter sensitivity analysis. The results show that： favorable changes in energy efficiency and pollution degree of unit discharging can reduce the social marginal cost and restrain inflation, contributing to the realization of the policy goal of energy saving, environment controlling and economic growth ; the bigger the capital elasticity coefficient of the economic structure is, the more notable the positive effect of energy efficiency on economy will be, and the more serious the negative effect of environmental pollution on economy will be; technology innovation can play a significant role in pro- to improving residents＇ income and consumption structure; transforming and u ving the income redistribution mechanism play a complementary and important pgrading industries and impro- role in improving the domesticeconomic structure and stabilizing economic fluctuation.