中国财政风险预警系统的构建——基于AHP评价法的实证研究

Constructing China's Early-Warning Fiscal Risk System:An AHP Based Empirical Research

本文应用运筹学理论中的AHP评价法对我国面临的财政风险进行风险区间划分,通过选取宏观经济运行风险、财政体制风险、财政债务风险、财政收支风险4类风险因子及不同的风险评价指标,建立财政风险综合评价函数。通过设置风险区间用区间映射法将1994年-2010年我国财政风险预警指标进行指数化处理。分析结果表明,在1994年-2010年间,我国财政综合风险一直处于"轻警"状态,财政运行基本安全。但由于世界金融危机和财政政策转型的影响,我国的财政风险前景不容乐观,财政风险总体有上升的趋势。政府有必要采取相应的防范和化解措施,确保财政政策的平稳运行和宏观经济良性发展。

The paper divides fiscal risks facing China into different risk zones by using the AHP evaluation method, which is derived from operations research theory. By selecting different risk evaluation indexes and four categories of risk factors inclu- ding macroeeonomic risks, fiscal system risks, fiscal debt risks and fiscal balance risks, we establish composite evaluation functions for total fiscal risk and conduct indexation treatment on early warning indicators fiscal risk for the period of 1994- 2010, using the interval mapping method. The results show that China＇s total fiscal risk has been in a ＂light alarm＂ state and the fiscal system has operating in relatively safe conditions from 1994 to 2010. However, due to the impact of the world financial crisis and the restructuring of China＇s fiscal policies, the outlook of China＇s fiscal risk is not optimistic, with the overall fiscal risk on the rise. It is thus crucial for the government to take appropriate measures to prevent and resolve fiscal risks in order to ensure the smooth operations of fiscal policies and healthy development of the economy.