进出口贸易与区域产业结构调整:基于西部12省区的面板数据分析

Import and export trade and adjustment of regional industrial structure:a study of the provincial-level panel data in west China

选取了1996—2011年西部12省区的相关数据,采用个体固定效应面板数据模型,研究了货物进出口贸易对区域产业结构调整的影响效应.结果表明:在短期内,进出口贸易会对非贸易部门产生正向技术溢出效应,推动西部地区产业结构调整,但长期内进出口贸易的促进作用并不显著;国际贸易规则的引入,导致进口部门比出口部门的技术溢出效应更为显著,并影响到第二、第三产业的产值结构.

From the perspectives of optimizing the regional fixed model to analyze the influence of import and export industrial structure, this paper has used the individual trades in goods on the industrial structure of west China from 1996 to 2011, with a full consideration of the technological spillover effect and the institutional constraint during the course of the import and export trades in goods. This paper has two conclusions. Firstly, in short term, the foreign trade would generate the positive technology spillover to non - trade departments and promote the adjustment of its industrial structure, but this positive effect would not be significant in the long term. Secondly, the introduction of international trade rules has led to the import department spilling more technology than the export section, and affected the second and tertiary industries＇ output structure.