托宾效应及其传导机制检验——基于1993～2012年省级面板数据

Tobin Effect and Transmission Mechanism Testing: An Analysis based on the 1993 ～ 2012 Provincial Panel Data

本文从经典生产函数出发，将货币变量引入索罗经济增长模型，在控制货币增长率情况下揭示出通货膨胀通过改变稳态资本存量影响经济增长的传导机制。然后根据1993—2012年最新省级面板数据对托宾效应进行验证，同时对其传导机制、稳健性、冲击响应进行检验。研究表明：我国目前存在托宾效应，适度的通货膨胀短期内有利于经济增长，中长期作用效果不明显；1993—2002年期间，经济波动较大，通货膨胀与经济增长关系不确定，2003年以后，经济相对平稳，托宾效应显著；资本存量可作为传导机制的有效中介变量易受到通货膨胀影响。因此本文的研究结论表明，控制货币增长率、保持经济稳定、加强货币政策有效性将促进经济健康发展。

This paper starts from the classical production function of monetary assets. Monetary variable is introduced in Solow economic growth model,finding that inflation by changing the conduction mechanism of the steady-state capital stock affects economic growth. In addition,according to the latest 1993 ~ 2012 provincial panel data,verify the Tobin effect,at the same time test the transmission mechanism,robustness,impulse response. The results show that: at present our country has Tobin effect,moderate inflation is conducive to economic growth in the short term,medium and long-term effect is not obvious; In the 90' s of the 20 th century,large fluctuations in the economy,the relationship between inflation and economic growth is uncertain. Since 2003,the economy is relatively stable,the Tobin effect is significant; The capital stock can be used as an effective mediator variable transmission mechanism easily influenced by inflation. Control the rate of monetary growth,maintain economic stability,strengthen the effectiveness of monetary policy,will promote the healthy development of economy.