FDI、人力资本门槛与就业——基于门槛效应的检验

FDI,Human Capital Threshold and Employment: An Analysis based on Threshold Effect

本文从理论上分析了FDI影响劳动力就业的传导机制，并利用2002—2012年中国省际面板数据，以人力资本为门槛变量构建门槛回归模型，实证检验了FDI对我国高技能劳动力和低技能劳动力就业影响的门槛效应。研究结果表明：FDI对高技能劳动力和低技能劳动力就业的影响存在显著的人力资本门槛效应。在人力资本较低阶段，FDI会拉动低技能劳动力就业而抑制高技能劳动力就业；在中等人力资本阶段，FDI对高技能劳动力就业无显著影响，对低技能劳动力就业则有负影响；在高人力资本阶段，FDI会显著拉动高技能劳动力就业并抑制低技能劳动力就业。

This paper analyzes the transmission mechanism of the effect of FDI on employment,using panel data on 31 provinces in China during 2002 ~ 2012,and the paper takes human capital as the threshold variable to construct threshold regression model to make a empirical analysis of the threshold effect of FDI impact on the employment of high-skilled labor and low-skilled labor. The results show that the effects of FDI on the employment of high-skilled labor and low-skilled labor have a significant human capital threshold effects. In the low human capital stage,FDI will drive the employment of low-skilled labor and inhibit the employment of high-skilled. In the moderate stages of human capital,FDI has not significant effect on the employment of hige-skilled labor,however,FDI has a negative impact on the employment of low-skilled labor. In the high human capital stage,FDI will significantly boost the employment of high-skilled labor and suppress the employment of low-skilled labor.