基于Holt-Winters及趋势—ARMA组合模型的粮食种植成本预测分析——以山东省玉米、小麦为例

ANALYSIS OF GRAIN PRODUCTION COST FORECAST BASED ON HOLT-WINTERS AND TREND-ARMA COMBINED MODEL——TAKING CORN AND WHEAT OF SHANDONG PROVINCE FOR EXAMPLE

该文依据1998～2012年山东省粮食种植成本资料,运用时间序列Holt-Winters无季节型模型及趋势——ARMA模型构成的计量经济组合模型,对2013～2017年山东省粮食种植单位面积实际生产成本进行预测。研究表明,山东省粮食种植每公顷实际生产成本将持续加速增长,玉米将以年均增长9.48%的速度由2013年的5 913.30元提高到2017年的8 495.25元;小麦将以年均增长8.79%的速度由2013年的7355.55元提高到2017年的10 305元。成本高、加速增长将成为2013～2017年山东省粮食种植单位面积实际生产成本变动的主要特征,成本的快速增长已成为制约粮农种植收益增长的重要因素。为此,提出应对粮食种植成本过快上涨,提高农户种粮收益的对策建议：（1）积极推广集约利用主要生产资料的先进技术,鼓励节约用肥和提高化肥效能、提高粮食单产、节约机械作业费及节水的技术进步;（2）积极培育农村新型经营主体;（3）大力推进粮食规模化、专业化生产;（4）加快转变农业发展方式。

Using econometrics model combined time series Holt- Winters no season model with trend- ARMA method,this paper forecasted the actual production cost in grain plant unit area from 2013 to 2017 according the cost data of Shandong province from 1998 to 2012. The results showed that the actual cost per hectare would increase continuouly. Corn＇s per hectare cost would increase from 5 913. 30 to 8 495. 25 Yuan with an average annual growth speed of 9. 48%; wheat＇s per hectare cost would increase from 7 355. 55 to 10 305 Yuan with average annual growth speed of 8. 79%. High cost and accelerated increase would be the major characters of grain plant unit area actual production cost in Shandong province from 2013 to 2017,which become an important factor restricting peasants＇ income increase. Then it put forward some suggestions on cutting cost and raising income：（ 1）to actively popularize advanced techniques to save fertilizer application,enhance chemical fertilizer efficiency,elevate grain yield per unit area,save mechanical work cost and water resource.（ 2） to actively cultivate modern management body.（ 3） to energetically carry grain enlargement and specialization production forward.（ 4） to speed up agriculture development mode transfer.