中国柑橘供求弹性与生产波动影响因素实证研究

FACTORS OF AFFECTING CHINESE ORANGE PRODUCTION FLUCTUATIONS AND ELASTICITY OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND

柑橘较高的替代性和较长生产周期,致使柑橘价格波动较大,影响柑橘生产的稳定性。该文首先依据供求弹性理论,采用那维拉模型,构建柑橘供给反应函数和需求反应函数;其次,以1998～2011年为样本期,测度了柑橘长期供给弹性和需求弹性,厘清了影响柑橘供给和需求变动的主要因素。结果表明：柑橘当期种植面积、当期单产水平对柑橘供给有显著正向影响,滞后两期价格和滞后一期产量有较显著负向影响;滞后两期产量对当期柑橘需求正向影响显著,当期加工能力和柑橘滞后两期价格具有正向影响。研究结论：柑橘长期供给弹性（0.9）大于其需求弹性（0.14）、柑橘出口和企业加工总量以及5年的生产周期是影响中国柑橘生产波动的主要因素;中国柑橘市场形似发散型蛛网,价格波动导致生产不稳定趋势加剧。因此,为维持柑橘生产的稳定性,需要适度控制种植规模,调整品种结构,扩大柑橘出口规模,提高柑橘产品的精加工和深加工的能力。

The higher substitutability and longer production cycle caused the orange price fluctuation and affected the stability of orange production. In this paper,firstly,the supply and demand response functions were constructed by the Vera models according to the elasticity theory; Secondly,as the sample period from 1998 to 2011,the long- term elasticity of supply and demand were measured and the key factors affecting the changes of supply and demand were distinguished. The results showed that： the factors had significant positive effect on orange supply and demand included current orange acreage,current yield level,the current processing capacity,and yield lag of two period,while the facotors had negative impacts included the price lag of two period and yield lag of one period. The conclusions were that the orange long- term supply elasticity（ 0. 9） was greater than the elasticity of demand（ 0. 14）. The total exports,processing enterprises as well as a five- year production cycle were the key factors affecting China orange production fluctuations. The price fluctuations significantly led to the production trend instability. Therefore,in order to maintain the stability of orange production,it should appropriately control planting scale,adjust product structure,expand export scale and improve processing capabilities.