河南省城镇化水平与能源消耗强度关系的动态计量分析

Dynamic Relationship between Development of Urbanization and Intensity of Energy Consumption in Henan Province

运用协整分析、格兰杰因果分析、广义脉冲分析和方差分解等方法,考察了河南省1990-2010年城镇化率与能源消耗强度之间的动态关系特征。研究结果表明,河南省城镇化率与能源消耗强度之间存在长期均衡关系,脉冲分析显示两组变量之间呈现反向的变动趋势,且能源消耗强度对城镇化率的冲击效应明显,而城镇化率对能源消耗强度的冲击较小且平缓;方差分解结果表明,河南省能源消耗强度对城镇化率的贡献较大,而城镇化率对能源消耗强度的贡献较小。今后河南省在推进城镇化的进程中必需强调节能减排,走低碳经济之路。

Co-integration analysis, Grainger causality analysis, generalized impulse analysis and variance decomposition were used to investigate dynamic relationship between the urbanization rate and energy consumption intensity in Henan province during 1990-2010. The results showed that there was a long-term equilibrium relationship between the urbanization rate and the intensity of energy consumption in Henan province. Pulse analysis showed that the change trend was opposite between the two sets of variables. The impact of the intensity of energy consumption on the urbanization was more obvious compared with the impact of the urbanization on the intensity of energy consumption. Variance decomposition showed that contribution of energy consumption intensity to changes in urbanization rate was high. The contribution of the urbanization rate to energy consumption intensity was small. Therefore, attention must be paid to conserve energy, develop low carbon economic in advancing the process of urbanization in Henan province.