多方债务纠纷下的海运物流违约风险评估——以“海娜号”事件为例

Study on Evaluation of Default Risks in Maritime Logistics Operations under Dispute over Multilateral Obligations:In the Case of Haina Incident

针对海运物流企业客户信用意识不强、国家海运物流信用管理系统不完善以及对海运物流信用违约惩治力度不够等海运物流发展现状,依据区间判断矩阵理论构建多方债务纠纷下海运物流违约马尔可夫综合评估模型,并以"海娜号"海航邮轮海运物流违约债务纠纷事件为例,对海运违约风险进行定性以及定量研究和计算,结果证实了构建的多方债务纠纷下海运物流违约风险评估模型可以准确地评估海运物流企业违约风险的大小,同时也证明了该模型的科学性和易操作性,为海运物流企业在多方债务纠纷下准确有效地评估和防范海运违约风险提供了理论依据。

In this paper, in view of the current status of the development of the maritime logistics industry in China, we established the Markov comprehensive model for the evaluation of the default risks in maritime transportation under dispute over multilateral obligations on the basis of the interval judgment matrix theory, then in the case of the passenger liner Haina, had a qualitative and quantitative study on the default risks involved.