城市空间扩张与机动化水平增长之间的互动关系探析

Interactive Relationship between Urban Spatial Expansion and Mobility Growth in China

城市空间扩张与交通机动化水平增长之间关系密切.为探讨改革开放后我国城市空间扩张与机动化水平增长之间的互动关系,考察两者之间相互的影响程度及互动均衡特征,本文采用计量分析方法对1985-2010年的数据进行分析.研究结果表明:①改革开放至今,中国城市空间扩张与机动化水平增长之间存在长期稳定的互动均衡关系;②机动化水平增长对城市空间扩张的影响存在一定的滞后性,初期中国城市空间扩张主要受自身波动的影响,机动化水平的增长对其影响较小,在远期两者之间相互影响趋于稳定平衡.该分析结果有利于深化认识现阶段我国城市空间不断扩展现象及其空间扩张同机动化水平之间的关系,以应对现阶段我国城市交通问题.

There is a close relationship between urban spatial expansion and mobility growth. To investigate the degree of mutual influences and characteristics of interactive equilibrium between them since the reform and opening in China, this paper uses the econometric methods based on the data of urban spatial expansion and mobility growth during the period 1985-2010. The empirical results show that there is a long-term stable interactive equilibrium relationship between urban spatial expansion and mobility growth. The study finds that the mobility growth exerts a hysteretic impact on the urban spatial expansion. The dominant factor influencing the urban spatial expansion is from its own and the impact of mobility growth on urban spatial expansion is little in early years. However, the mutual impacts between them reach a stable equilibrium in the long-term. It is helpful to recognize the relationship between urban spatial expansion and mobility growth in China, so that some measures can be taken to response to the urban expansion problems.