不确定条件对交通网络设计的影响分析

Comparative Analysis of Transportation Network Design Problem under Stochastic Capacity

在交通网络设计问题中较为关键的问题之一是如何准确合理的反映网络用户出行行为,符合实际的行为描述有助于决策者做出正确的决策.已有文献在用户均衡基础上对网络设计问题做出研究,假设所有用户均为风险中性的,忽略了出行时间不确定性给网络设计决策带来的差异性影响.本文在随机路段能力导致的不确定环境下,引入期望出行时间(MTT)、出行时间预算(TTB)和α-可靠性的平均额外行程时间(METT),并采用数据结果对比分析不同用户均衡模式(DUE、DRUE、METTUE)对网络设计问题决策的影响.实验结果表明,在不同路段能力随机变化程度下,考虑用户出行时间的不确定性因素,较传统用户均衡更贴近现实,同时也为网络设计决策提供更准确的指导.

The method to accurately simulate users travel behavior in the network design problem（NDP） is one of the most crucial problems. Most research in the network design problem ignores the unreliability aspect of travel time. Specifically, the mean travel time（MTT）, the travel time budget（TTB）, and the α- reliable mean-excess travel time（METT） are employed in the transportation network design problem under an uncertain environment due to stochastic link capacity. Numerical are presented to examine how these models affects decisions under the condition of travel time variability. The experimental results show that the performance of DRUE and METTUE is better than DUE which is employed in network design problem under variation degrees because of considering travel time variability.