鄱阳湖流域年降水量周期、趋势及响应特征分析

An analysis of period,tendency and response characteristics of annual precipitation in Poyang Lake basin

采用Morlet小波分析法和Mann-Kendall非参数统计法,分析1953—2010年鄱阳湖流域16个气象站年降水量序列的周期、趋势及突变特征,对比分析年降水量与年径流量的周期、趋势及突变特征,揭示年降水量与年径流量的响应关系。研究表明鄱阳湖流域年降水量序列存在3个主周期,分别为22a、7a、4a;1953—2010年鄱阳湖流域年降水量整体呈不显著的增长趋势,并在1992年发生显著性突变,置信度达95%;鄱阳湖流域年径流量的周期变化和趋势突变与年降水量在尺度范围、时间点位、空间分布以及显著程度均比较一致,显示鄱阳湖流域年降水量与年径流量之间在周期、趋势和突变方面存在显著的响应关系。

Morlet wavelet analysis method and Mann-Kendall non-infiltration statistics are used to analyze the period,tendency and abrupt change characteristics of annual precipitation orders in the years of 1953—2010at 16meteorological stations in Poyang Lake basin and to make a contrast analysis of the period,tendency and abrupt change characteristics between annual precipitation and annual runoff,and annual runoff.Research results indicate that there exist 3main periods,being 22a,7aand 4arespectively in the annual precipitation orders in Poyang Lake basin.The overall annual precipitation in the years of 1953—2010appeared to have no obvious growing tendency in Poyang Lake basin,and in 1992,there occurred to have obvious change with the confidence reaching 95%;the periodic variation and tendency abrupt change in the annual runoff in Poyang Lake Basin are in coincidence with the annual precipitation in temporal scale,time point,spatial distribution and obvious degrees,whereby that there exists an obvious response relationship between the annual precipitation and the annual runoff in the period,tendency and abrupt change in Poyang Lake basin.