中国对外贸易隐含碳排放研究:1997-2011年

Carbon Emissions Embodied in China's Import and Export: 1997—2011

本文基于1997-2007年中国(进口)非竞争型可比价投入产出表,测算了1997-2011年中国进出口贸易的隐含碳排放量。结果表明,我国的进出口含碳量均呈现持续快速增长的态势,但进口含碳量的增长速度低于出口含碳量。因此,除1997年与1998年外,我国的净贸易含碳量均为正值,且数值不断增大,表明对外贸易对中国碳排放的综合影响是不利的。同时,对在日本、澳大利亚、东盟三技术水平下中国进出口贸易隐含碳排放的模拟测算结果表明:中国的碳减排空间巨大,如果能通过改进中国的能源效率、提高技术水平来降低中国的碳排放强度,其国内减排效应与全球减排效应都将十分明显。

Based on China＇ s non - competitive （import） constant price input - output tables, this paper estimates China＇s embodied carbon emissions in its import and export from the year of 1997 to the year of 2011. Results indicate that the carbon emissions embodied in China＇s import and export has increased rapidly, but the growth rate of the carbon emissions embodied in China＇s import has been lower than export, so China＇s net trade carbon content was positive except the year of 1997 and 1998, and the value is increasing, which showed that Chinese foreign trade has had the unfavorable impact on China＇s C02 emissions. Moreover, results of carbon emissions embodied in China＇s foreign trade were analyzed at three levels of Japan, Australia and ASEAN, according to the results, the space of carbon reduction remains huge, and in the open economy, it is not a single country＇s obligation and ability to reduce the CO2 emission, global cooperation is needed.