影响航空器维修安全的组织因素辨识与分析

Identification and analysis of organizational factors affecting aircraft maintenance safety

为研究航空维修安全管理新思路,就组织因素影响航空维修安全问题,通过建立系统动力学(SD)模型,分析其作用机理,并辨识关键组织因素。首先依据事故因果连锁理论和"瑞士奶酪"模型,建立组织因素影响航空维修安全的概念模型;在此基础上,应用SD建模原理和方法,建立组织因素影响航空维修安全的SD模型,并在参数设置时采用模糊推理理论分析组织因素的不确定性问题;然后,利用SD模型研究各组织因素对航空维修系统安全水平的影响,对关键组织因素进行动态识别;最后,运用SD建模仿真软件Vensim PLE进行仿真计算。结果表明,用该方法能够对比分析各组织因素安全投入增长量对航空维修安全水平的影响,从而能够识别影响航空维修安全的关键组织因素。

It is held by the authors that in order to explore new ideas for aviation maintenance safety management effectively,based on issues of organizational factors affecting aviation maintenance safety,a SD model should be built to analyze the mechanism by which organizational factors affect the safety,and identify the key organizational factors. Firstly,a conceptual model of organizational factors affecting aviation maintenance safety was built based on accident causal chain theory and ＂ Swiss cheese＂ model.Secondly,applying the method of SD theory,a SD model of organizational factors affecting aviation maintenance safety was built. Fuzzy inference theory was also used to analyze the uncertainty of organizational factors in the modeling process. And then,effects of organizational factors on aviation maintenance safety were studied. Key organizational factors were identified dynamically. Finally,the results of simulating calculating by using SD modeling software Vensim PLE show that this method can be used to analyze the effects of growth of safety investment in various organizational factors on aviation maintenance safety levels,and identify the key organizational factors.