区域突出预测对煤层瓦斯含量与压力敏感性研究

Research on relative variation ratio of gas content for regional outburst prediction

为比较煤层瓦斯含量与瓦斯压力预测区域突出危险的敏感程度,合理选择区域突出危险预测指标,引入瓦斯含量相对变化率的概念,推导出瓦斯含量相对变化率的表达式。采用单因素敏感性分析法,找出瓦斯含量相对变化率的关键影响因素。绘制瓦斯含量相对变化率与瓦斯压力的关系曲线。得出煤层瓦斯含量指标区域预测比瓦斯压力敏感的条件是,瓦斯含量相对变化率W’大于1。谢一矿望峰岗井C15煤层区域突出危险预测应用表明,试验区域代表性地点W’均大于1,变化范围3.427～5.449,说明采用瓦斯含量预测区域突出危险比瓦斯压力更敏感。

The sensitivity of regional outburst prediction to gas content and pressure was studied to select a reasonable indicator for prediction. Firstly a concept of relative variation ratio of gas content was introduced. A relational expression of ratio was derived. Key factors affecting the ratio were identified by univariate sensitivity analysis. A curve showing relation between ratio and gas pressure was drawn. Finally the sensitive condition,which is that relative variation ratio of gas content W＇ 1,was obtained. In Wangfenggang shaft,Xieyi mine,the application shows that ratio measured at the test area of coal seam C15is greater than one（ W＇ 1）,ranging from 3. 427 to 5. 449,so gas content is sensitive than gas pressure.