摘要
Based on the physical model of Brownian passage time,the probabilities of recurrence of strong earthquakes on the major active faults in China are calculated in different predictive time spans,based mainly on the analysis of the earthquake preparation process before a strong earthquake occurs. Furthermore,the seismic risks on active faults are studied. The results show that the earthquake probabilities on the Xianshuihe fault,the Altyn Tagh fault,the east Kunlun fault and Xiaojiang fault are significantly greater than other faults in the Chinese mainland,which indicates that the level of stress accumulation on these faults are higher than on other faults. Therefore,these faults may have a seismic risk for strong earthquake in future.
Based on the physical model of Brownian passage time,the probabilities of recurrence of strong earthquakes on the major active faults in China are calculated in different predictive time spans,based mainly on the analysis of the earthquake preparation process before a strong earthquake occurs. Furthermore,the seismic risks on active faults are studied. The results show that the earthquake probabilities on the Xianshuihe fault,the Altyn Tagh fault,the east Kunlun fault and Xiaojiang fault are significantly greater than other faults in the Chinese mainland,which indicates that the level of stress accumulation on these faults are higher than on other faults. Therefore,these faults may have a seismic risk for strong earthquake in future.
基金
supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41104036)
