我国三次产业全要素生产率测算及其变动原因分解

The Measure of Total Factor Productivity and the Reasons for Changes in Decomposition of China's Three Industries

在我国产业结构转型升级的背景下,利用DEA-Malmquist指数和SVAR模型对我国三次产业全要素生产率(TFP)及变动原因进行研究。结果表明,第一产业TFP整体呈下降趋势,第二、第三产业TFP呈上升趋势,且第三产业转型效率高于第一、第二产业;技术进步是提高我国TFP的主要因素,效率提高对TFP的贡献较弱;各类冲击对第三产业TFP的影响路径不同于第一、第二产业,需求冲击对三次产业TFP的提高起到了积极作用。因此,加大对第一产业的科技扶持力度,提高效率,取消对部分行业的政策保护色彩以及扩大内需,对提高我国产业结构转型效率具有重要意义。

Under the background of transformation and upgrading of industrial structure,research on the three industries in total factor productivity（TFP）and the reasons for the changes using DEA-Malmquist Index and the SVAR model.The results show that： the TFP of the first industry have an overall downward trend,and the TFP of the secondary and tertiary industries is rising,and the transformation of the third industry is more efficient than the first and second industry.The technological progress is a major factor in improving the efficiency of TFP,but the efficient improving contributes weakness.The pass of various types of shocks on the tertiary industry TFP is different from the first and second industry,and the demand shock played a positive role for improving the TFP of the three industries.Therefore,it＇s important to increase efforts to support science and technology of the first industry,and improve efficiency,and cancel the protecting color to the part of industry and expand domestic demand for improving the efficiency of China＇s industrial restructuring.