吉林省碳足迹动态变化研究

Carbon Footprint Dynamics Research of Jilin Province

通过STIRPAT随机模型,采用有偏估计岭回归函数,对人口、经济、技术发展与能源消费碳足迹的关系进行研究,考察经济发展与能源消费碳足迹间是否存在库茨涅茨曲线,并研究二者间的脱钩指数变化。从分析来看,吉林省人口、经济增长和技术发展均与能源消费碳足迹存在正相关关系。要想进一步优化吉林省能源消费碳排放结构,一方面应当进一步提高能源利用效率,大力发展循环经济,另一方面,应当积极开发和利用以核电和风电为主的新能源和清洁能源。

Through STIRPAT random model and using biased estimate ridge regression function,the essay conducts a study on the relationship between the population,economic,technology and the energy consumption carbon footprint.The essay investigates that if there is a Coontz kuznets curve between the economic development and the energy consumption carbon footprint,then studies the decoupling index change of them.By investigating the dynamic change process of carbon footprint of Jilin province,the essay wants to offset the deficiency of vertical analysis and provides reality basis for the development of low carbon economy of Jilin province.