利用灰色系统GM(1.1)模型预测北京市怀柔区肺结核发病率

Using grey system GM( 1. 1) model to predict the incidence of tuberculosis in Huairou district of Beijing

目的对北京市怀柔区肺结核流行趋势进行分析和预测,为结核病防治工作提供科学依据。方法利用北京市怀柔区2008～2012年的肺结核发病情况,分析流行趋势,并用GM（1,1）模型对2013～2014年肺结核发病率进行预测。结果经过计算建立的肺结核发病率预测模型^x（1）（i＋1）=1165.634e0.021i-1139.9,c=0.28〈0.35,P=1.02＞1.05。模型拟合效果理想,可进行外推预测。2013～2014年预测发病率分别为26.9012/10万、27.4715/10万。结论北京市怀柔区未来2年肺结核发病率为缓慢上升势态,与流动人口的增长存在一定关联,今后要根据该区肺结核流行特征,适时调整防控策略,进一步加大结核病防治力度。

Objective To analyze and forecast the epidemic trend of pulmonary tuberculosis in Huairou District of Beijing,and to provide scientific basis for disease prevention. Methods The incidence trend of pulmonary tuberculosis was analyzed through information collected from 2008 to 2012 in Huairou District. Then GM（ 1,1） model was enrolled in the disease incidence forecasting in 2013-2014. Results The prediction model of pulmonary tuberculosis incidence rate was ^x（ 1）（ i ＋1） =1165. 634e0. 021i-1139. 9,c = 0. 28〈0. 35,P = 1. 02 〉1. 05. Model fitting effect was acceptable. The incidence of the disease in2013 and 2014 could extrapolate from the model,which was 26. 9012 /100 000 and 27. 4715 /100 000 respectively. Conclusion The incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis in Huairou district of Beijing has slowly rising trend in the next 2 years,which was associated with the growth of the floating population. According to disease characteristics in this district,strategies adjustment and disease prevention and control should be enhanced in future.