隐性收入对当前中国居民消费率低估的影响机理——基于国民经济核算原理和实务的探讨

Impact Mechanism of Hidden Income on the Underestimation of China's Consumption Rate——A Discussion Based on Principles and Practices of the National Accounting

居民消费率低估涉及对中国宏观经济比例关系的基本判断,此前有文章从灰色成本角度予以讨论,但尚缺少核算意义上的机理分析。将灰色成本纳入更广泛意义上的隐性收入与隐性消费,分析其发生的背景和方式,可以为研究其对于消费低估的影响奠定基础。在具有对称性的GDP核算框架中结合当前中国核算实务系统分析隐性收入及其消费效应,结果表明:中国居民消费率确实受隐性收入影响而存在低估,但消费低估与GDP低估是同步发生的,不能简单地基于投资率和政府消费率通过结构调整而重估居民消费率,更不能将经济学意义上的投资额高估等同于核算意义上的投资额高估。

The fact of the ratio of households＇ consumption to GDP （consumption rate） is underestimated is concerned with the basic judgment about the China＇ s macro-economic structure. Although the underestimation has been discussed from the viewpoint of gray costs, it＇ s never been analyzed in the context of the national accounting framework. Analyzing the backgrounds and forms of the gray costs in a broader sense of hidden income and hidden consumption helps to study the impact of underestimation of gray costs on the underestimation of consumption. Under the symmetric GDP accounting framework, this paper analyzes the hidden income and its effect on the hidden consumption based on Chinese accounting practices. The results show although the Chinese consumption rate is underestimated due to the hidden income, the underestimation of consumption rate and the underestimation of GDP concur. Therefore, it is not reasonable to re-estimate the consumption rate only through the adjustment of proportion of investment, government consumption and household consumption, and it is more ridiculous to regard the overestimation of investment in the economic sense as that in the accounting sense.