摘要
针对目前中国养老保险个人账户难以做实的现状，本文首先推算出未来各年龄别职工人数和工资的动态变化过程，然后在精算模型的基础上调整了部分公式，试图更好地还原实际情况，并以此测算出个人账户在未来每一期的结余情况。结果显示，未来10余年现有制度仍可以持续运行，虽然不会出现收不抵支的局面，但个人账户的做实比例仅在60％～75％，缺口较大，需要寻求大量额外资金注入来辅助其完成实账化。
In view of the present situation of Chinese personal accounts of endowment insurance is hard to be practical, this paper firstly estimate the dynamic change process of employee amount and wage levels in different age dimension, then adjusts the original actuarial model, the target is to simulate the actual situation better. Based on the new frame, the calculation of the personal accounts＇ dynamical balance in each period will be done. The results showed that, in the future the existing system can still run, the gap between income and expenditure do not appear, but the personal accounts can only be real established for 60% -75% , additional funds are need to be put in to assist the completion of real personal accounts system.
出处
《统计研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第7期38-42,共5页
Statistical Research
关键词
养老保险
个人账户
收支缺口
动态平衡
Endowment Insurance
Personal Accounts
Gap between the Income and Expense
Dynamical Balance
