风电场风速预测的不确定性研究

Uncertainty in Wind Speed Predictions for Wind Farms

风速预测的超前性导致其预测结果是不确定的,传统的确定性风速预测只提供确切的数值,不能满足电网规划的要求。分析了风速预测结果不确定性影响因素,并在确定性预测结果的基础上,从条件概率和预测误差分布统计规律两个角度对预测概率和置信区间进行分析和计算。仿真试验表明该方法能够为决策者提供概率预测信息,具有一定的实用性和有效性。

Wind speed prediction in advance usually brings about uncertainty of predicted results. Traditional deterministic forecasts only provide exact values, which can not meet the requirements of network planning. The uncertainty factors of the wind speed prediction are analyzed in the paper firstly, and then the prediction probability and confidence interval are separately analyzed and calculated from conditional probability and statistical laws of forecast errors based on the deterministic forecast results. Simulation results show that the methods are practical and effective, which can provide more probabilistic forecast information to decision makers.