我国生产性服务贸易与经济增长实证关系研究

Empirical Study on the Relationship Between producer service trade and Economic Growth in China

基于生产性服务贸易现状,借助VAR模型的脉冲响应函数和方差分解,分析我国生产性服务贸易每个行业贸易对经济增长的影响,得出每个行业不论是进口还是出口对经济增长的拉动和贡献度不同。提出继续保持运输业、建筑业的发展,特别要鼓励其出口;适当开放通信业,鼓励广告宣传咨询业联合发展;适当放宽政策管制,加大保险专有和金融贸易;扩大计算机和信息服务出口,提高其出口对经济增长的贡献度;引导其他商业服务与引入企业合作,提高自身服务水平的政策建议。

Based on the present situation of producer services trade,this paper analyzes the impact of each producer service industry＇s trade on Chinese economy through impulse response function and variance decomposition of VAR model.It concludes that different producer service industry＇s trade,whether import or export,has different influence on the increase of economy.So this paper suggests that keep developing shipping industry and construction industry,especially their export;open communication industry＇s trade appropriate and encourage the joint development of advertising industry and consulting industry;relax the policy regulation properly and increase the trade of insurance,royalty licensing and finance.nlarge the export of TC to improve its contribution on economic growth;guide the cooperation between the other commercial service industry and foreign enterprise to improve their service levels.