作用度在风险评价变权重中的优化和应用

Optimization and application of action degree in variable weight of risk assessment

权重设定是风险评价重要内容之一,其在传统风险评价运用时的不变性和设定时的主观性会影响评价精度。作用度是后验概率的函数,利用作用度设定权重能降低先验概率的影响,通过将作用度优化到风险因子的取值上,实现实时评价过程中的变权重,从而提高风险评价效能。

Weight setting is an important part of risk assessment. In traditional risk assessment,the weight will be affected by subjectivity and its invariance in application will influence its assessment accuracy. Action degree is a function of posterior probability which can reduce the impact of a priori probability in setting weight. Through applying action degree into the risk factors,the real-time evaluation process with variable weights was realized,and the effectiveness of risk assessment was improved.