青藏高原水文模拟的现状及未来

Hydrological Modelling over the Tibetan Plateau:Current Status and Perspective

介绍了青藏高原水文模拟的研究现状和发展趋势。水文模拟是研究水文过程的主要手段,可为流域水资源管理及防灾减灾提供理论和决策支持。国际上第一代水文模型为"集总式",第二代水文模型为"分布式",但它们大都以描述降水—产流的水分输移为主("水圈"),未仔细考虑陆—气水热交换中植被的调节作用("生物圈—大气圈")。近10年来,在气候变化的背景下,随着大气科学以及生态学的蓬勃发展,分布式水文模型开始描述生物圈—大气圈相互作用;通过改进陆—气间的水热交换过程以及植被的生理过程,实现了对流域水圈—生物圈—大气圈的综合模拟。然而,针对显著受冰冻圈过程影响的青藏高原,需要深入研究冰冻圈与其他圈层(水圈/生物圈/大气圈)的相互作用机理,并实现其在水文模拟中的参数化,以提升区域水资源和水灾害的预测能力。

This paper describes the current status and perspective for the hydrological modelling over the Ti-betan Plateau （TP）. Hydrological models, as primary tools to study hydrological processes, can provide theoreticaland decision support for water resources management as well as disaster prevention and mitigation in river basins.As is known, the first-generation hydrological models are ＂lumped＂, and the second-generation hydrological modelsare ＂distributed＂. However, most of the above models mainly describe the ＂precipitation-to-runoff＂ water transportprocesses （ ＂hydrosphere＂ ） without carefully addressing the special role of vegetation in the water and energy ex-changes in the land-atmosphere interactions （＂biosphere-atmosphere＂）. Over the past decade, in the context ofclimate change, with the vibrant developments of atmospheric science and ecology, distributed hydrological modelsbegan to describe the biosphere-atmosphere interactions by improving the water and energy cycle formulations be-tween the land and atmosphere, as well as enhancing the descriptions of physiological processes of vegetation. Up tonow, a comprehensive description of hydrosphere-biosphere-atmosphere interactions in river basins has been real-ized by the hydrological community. However, regarding TP with a large portion of cryosphere land cover, the de-tailed cryospheric processes are of essence to be fmther considered in the multi-sphere hydrological modeling overTP. This will largely contribute to studies of the interaction mechanism among the cryosphere and other spheres（ hydrosphere/biosphere/atmosphere） , and thus improve the predictive ability of the region＇ s water resources andwater-related disasters.