乌克兰危机中的能源博弈及对中国的影响

Energy Politics in the Ukraine Crisis and its Effects on China

乌克兰危机发生后,2014年欧洲和国际能源市场总体上并未呈现大起大落态势,全球油气价格反而稳中有降,这一表象的背后隐藏着俄、美、欧之间复杂的能源博弈。虽然俄罗斯没有如2006年和2009年那样切断对乌克兰的天然气供应,能源供应也未成为本次危机中威胁乌克兰和欧盟国家的焦点事件。但鉴于俄、乌两国分别是全球最重要的能源生产国和过境国,能源仍可能是俄、美、欧各方推进自身内外政策的重要工具。在此次危机中,俄罗斯"以我为主",坚持政经分离的政策,不希望政治冲突影响自身能源利益。美国"主动进攻",试图通过金融工具来影响能源价格,利用俄罗斯经济与国际社会接轨的一面,对俄罗斯施加压力。相比之下,欧盟在能源供应来源方面虽然仍旧处于弱势和被动地位,但已开始加速多元化步伐,并将继续强化与美国的合作。俄、美、欧三方激烈的能源博弈,围绕地缘政治的权力逻辑和全球治理的建章立制逻辑而展开,直接推动俄罗斯能源出口重心东移,为中国主动对俄施展能源外交、中日韩能源合作以及中美能源经贸合作提供了机遇。作为世界能源领域的需求大国,中国应积极参与全球能源治理,以确保充足的外部能源供应和国内能源问题的解决。

In spite of the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis, the overall European and international energy markets have not experienced any sharp rises and falls and the oil and gas prices remain steady with a slight decline, indicating a hidden energy game being played between Russia, the EU and the US. In contrast to what it did in 2006 and 2009 and contrary to what had been speculated, Russia has continued its natural gas supply to Ukraine and, thus, energy supply failed to become one of the focuses of attention during the crisis, though, apparently, with Russia as one of the key energy producing countries and Ukraine as one of the major transit countries, the energy issue could be very instrumental to the promotion of domestic and foreign policies for either Russia, the US, or the EU. Russia is keen to see its energy interests unthreatened in the ongoing political confrontation, and the US tries to manipulate energy market prices with financial means to curb Russia's ambition in Ukraine. Though still in a relatively passive and weak position, the EU has accelerated its energy diversification and will strengthen its cooperation with the US. The energy games between Russia, the US and EU have pushed Russia to seek more export possibilities in the Far East, which provides China with opportunities not only to initiate its energy diplomacy toward Russia, but also promote its energy cooperation with Japan and South Korea as well as the US. As the leading energy consumer in the world, China has a more active role to play in global energy governance to achieve its own goals of energy security.