信贷行业结构与经济增长波动——基于湖北省的实证分析

Credit Structure and Economic Fluctuations:Evidences from Hubei Province

近年来,信贷增速与产出增速之间的缺口有所扩大,吸引了广泛关注。针对这一问题,本文从信贷行业结构变动和经济增长波动之间的关系入手,利用湖北省的经济金融数据,构建FAVAR模型对此进行实证分析。实证结果表明,信贷行业结构的变动是造成经济增速与信贷增速不同步的重要原因。其中,第二产业的信贷扩张会在短期内刺激经济增长;而第三产业的信贷扩张对经济增长的正向影响则具有一定的滞后期,但可以通过改善社会全要素生产率,对经济增长产生更加持久的影响。湖北省经济金融的发展实践也验证了这一结论。

The enlarged gap between the growth rates of regional credit and output is paid with wide attentionrecently. Based on the relationship between credit structure and economic fluctuations, this paper analyzes thisphenomenon by constructing a FAVAR model with financial data from Hubei province. We conclude that thedynamic capital structure is one of the significant reasons for the discrepancies of the two. To be more specific,in the secondary industry, credit expansions increase the output in the short term; in the tertiary industry, creditexpansions have positive but lagging effects on economic growth but the effects are more persistent as theyimprove the total factor productivity.. Moreover, the conclusions are supported by the experiences of Hubeiprovince.