中国东盟区域经济一体化程度测量——基于时序主成分分析框架

The Measurement of the Level of Regional Economic Integration between China and ASEAN

本文基于时序主成分分析框架,构建起区域经济一体化程度测量模型,对中国—东盟区域经济一体化程度在2002年至2012年的变化情况进行测量。结果表明:总体上看,中国—东盟区域经济一体化程度有了明显的提升;可以分为四个阶段来说明。

Based on principal components analysis framework, This paper constructs the measurement model of the level of regional economic integration and measures the level of regional economic integration between China and ASEAN during 2002 and 2012 . The results show ： Overall, since CAFTA has been proposed, the level of regional economic integration between China and ASEAN has been significantly improved. It can be di- vided into four stages： The fluctuation stages before 2005, The stage of first rapid rising between 2005 and 2008, the stage of the Subprime crisic impact in 2009, the stage of second rapid rising between 2010 and 2012.