利比亚战后政治重建诸问题探究

Analysis of Political Reconstruction in Post-Conflict Libya

政治重建是确立战后利比亚国家属性和发展定位的核心议题。卡扎菲政权垮台两年有余,利比亚政治重建进程却裹足不前、徘徊不定,仍处于初创和起步阶段。一方面,利比亚国内各地区(部落)以及不同政治势力之间在国家建构、制度安排和利益分割上缠斗不休,难以达成共识;另一方面,威权政权垮台和西方新干涉主义后的遗症效应,导致利比亚国内极端势力肆虐,社会动荡,经济衰退,安全形势持续恶化。利比亚战后重建取决于诸多因素,其中,建立政权的合法性、权威性和政治包容性是衡量政治重建进展的关键要素。由此看,利比亚政治重建与政治转型仍面临严峻挑战,前景充满变数。

Political reconstruction is the core issue to establish Libyan national identity and development orientation after the conflict. Over the two years since the fall of Gaddafi regime, the process of Libyan political reconstruction is still in preliminary stage without stepping forward. On the one hand, different regions （tribes） and political forces in Libya constantly compete with each other, and cannot reach a consensus on national construction, system arrangement and interest distribution. On the other hand, the collapse of authoritarian regime and new interventionism of Western countries bring aftereffects of raging domestic extreme forces, social unrest, economic recession and deteriorating security situation. Libyan reconstruction after the conflict depends on a variety of factors, among which regime legitimacy, authority establishment and inclusive politic are key factors to measure the process of political reconstruction. Therefore, the outlook of Libyan political reconstruction is dim, and the transformation of political system will be undergoing with uncertainties.