近50年河套灌区种植系统演化分析

Plantation System Evolution Analysis of Hetao Irrigation District in Recent 50 Years

以内蒙古河套灌区为研究对象,根据协同学支配原理,分别在作物种植系统资源环境、社会经济和种植结构子系统设置了序参量,利用基于协同学原理的种植系统演化特征识别模型,计算了河套灌区1960—2008年种植系统的有序度和协调度,分析了系统协调度变化规律,揭示了该系统的协同异化规律,提出了种植结构合理阈值区间。结果表明:种植系统协调度呈现波动性变化,但变化幅度不大,系统在2004年发生突变,系统异化特征明显;提出了作物种植比例合理阈值区间,粮食为(47.82%,62.66%),经济作物为(24.64%,43.49%)。

Hetao irrigation district in Inner Mongolia was selected as the study site. The domination principle of synergetic was used for analysis. Order parameters were established in three subsystems of the plantation system： resources environment, socio-economic and plantation structure subsystem, respectively. The order degree and coordination degree of the system from 1960 to 2008 were calculated by a system identification model based on synergetic theory. Furthermore, the changes on the coordinating degree were analyzed as well as the synergy and difference features. The threshold values were then put forward for informing reasonable plantation structure. The results show that the coordination degree of the plantation system presents fluctuation changes, but the changes are relatively low. Particularly, a break occurred in 2004 and shows significantly difference characteristics. Finally, a reasonable threshold interval of proportion for crop plantation was put forward. It is grain （47.82% , 62.66% ） and economic crops （24.64% ,43.49% ）.