基于未确知测度的矿产预测评价方法

Mineral Resources Predication and Evaluation Methods Based on Uncertainty Measure Theory

分析了矿产定量化预测与未确知评价的意义,针对矿产定量化预测与未确知评价存在不确定的特点,将未确知测度理论引入矿产定量化预测与未确知评价中,提出了基于未确知测度理论的矿产定量化预测与未确知综合评价模型。从实际地质条件出发,考虑影响成矿有利度的7项因素,根据实测数据建立各影响因素的未确知测度函数。该模型针对矿产定量化预测与未确知评价中的诸多不确定影响因素,根据实际情况,分别对其进行定性、定量分析,并利用信息熵理论确定了各指标权重,依照置信度识别准则对成矿有利度进行了等级判定,并对其进行了排序。将该方法应用于青海虎头崖矿田3个矿带的成矿有利度评价。研究结果表明,该方法科学合理,意义明确,为今后矿产定量化预测与未确知评价提供了一定的借鉴意义。

The significance of quantitative prediction of mineral resources and uncertainty evaluation was analyzed. Based on their uncertainty characteristics, uncertainty measure theory was introduced into quantitative prediction of mineral resources and uncertainty evaluation in this paper, and a prediction and evaluation model was proposed. Based on practical geological conditions, seven factors that influence the mineralizing favorability degree were taken into account and uncertainty measure function was established based on the in-situ data. The uncertainty problems in quantitative prediction of mineral resources and uncertainty evaluation were solved by qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, respectively. Information entropy theory was used to calculate the index weight of factors, credible degree recognition criteria were used to judge the mineralizing favorability degree, and the order was arranged. This model was emphoyed to evaluate three ore belts in Hutouya mine field in Qinghai. The results show that uncertainty measure method is reasonable and can provide reference for quantitative prediction of mineral resources and uncertainty evaluation in the future.