山东省人口老龄化空间分布与演化分析——基于探索性空间分析技术(ESDA)

Spatiotemporal Transition of the Aging Population in Shandong Province—Based on Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis(ESDA)

将空间因素纳入到人口老龄化问题的研究框架,利用山东省1990～2010年间的三次人口普查数据,以区县为基本地域单元,基于探索性空间分析技术(ESDA)对山东省人口老龄化的空间分布现状及其演化特征进行分析.结果表明:(1)山东省的老龄化率在空间上呈现出自东向西递减的四级阶梯状分布;(2)人口老龄化率表现出较强的空间集聚特征,但是这种空间集聚状态呈现不断发散的趋势;(3)高水平集聚区域集中于半岛地区且稳定性好,而低水平集聚区域则经历了从鲁中南向鲁西北的转移.

This paper bringes the spatial factor into the framework of ageing study, and identifies the dynamic spatial distribution of aging population during 1990 -2010 in Shandong at county level with the dataset derived from 1990 to 2000 National Population Census, applying the reeently developed methods of Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis. The results show that ： （ 1 ） At present, Shandong province＇s the rate of the population aging forms four ladder shaped distribution from east to west in spaee; （2） According to the global Moran I index, the rate of the aging population shows strong spatial agglomeration which appears divergent trend with the passage of time ; （ 3 ） The H-H agglomeration areas are mainly concentrated in the peninsula area with a good stability and L-L agglomeration areas experienced the transfer from the central south to the northwest of Shandong province.