基于多国面板数据对通货膨胀率和经济增长率关系的探究

The Exploration of the Relationship between Inflation and Economic Growth Rates based on A Multi-Country Panel Data

稳增长和低通胀的结合是大多数国家宏观经济政策的核心目标,这二者的关系自然成为经济学家兴趣和争论的焦点。尽管相关的研究和争论仍在继续,但并没有产生令人们广泛信服的结论。实际上,高通胀对经济增长率的影响还有一条重要的途径:高通胀往往伴随着更高的波动性,在理性预期的非完全性、价格粘性的市场条件下,通胀率的高波动性使准确预期更困难,因而永久性地改变了人们的消费、储蓄、投资等经济行为,降低了资本存量,进而损害了经济增长率。总而言之,在现实经济是非完全市场的条件下,并非高通胀本身而是随之而来的高波动性损害了经济增长。

The combination of steady growth and low inflation is the core objective of most of the state ＇s macroeeonomic policies, so the relationship between them naturally becomes the core of economists＇ in- terest and debate. Although related research and debate continues, it still has not produced widely convincing conclusion. In fact, there is another way for the inflation to effect the economy growth, high inflation is often accompanied by higher volatility, in the imperfect market （incompletely rational expectation and price stickiness, etc. ）the accompanying high volatility of inflation makes accurate expectation more difficult, and therefore permanently changes people＇s consumption, savings, investment and other econom- ic behavior, further reduces the capital stock, at last impairs economic growth rate. In other words, in the non--perfect market real economy, not the high inflation itself, but rather the ensuing high uncertainty undermines economic growth.